WASHINGTON - Iraq's security forces have made "uneven progress" and will be unlikely to take over security on their own in the next 12 to 18 months, according to an independent assessment.
The study, led by retired Gen. James Jones, is one of several independent studies Congress required in May. A copy of the 37-page report and its executive summary was obtained by The Associated Press.
Overall, Jones found that Iraqi military forces, particularly the Army, show "clear evidence of developing the baseline infrastructures that lead to the successful formation of a national defense capability." But Baghdad's police force and Ministry of Interior are plagued by "dysfunction."
"In any event, the ISF will be unable to fulfill their essential security responsibilities independently over the next 12-18 months," the report states.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.
WASHINGTON (AP) - Democrats are considering ways to force a drawdown of troops if President Bush decides to keep forces in Iraq through spring as expected, including a possible short-term spending bill that would pay only to bring troops home.
The approach would guarantee another showdown with Bush on the war before year's end, putting Republicans squarely in the middle of the debate. With Democrats lacking the two-thirds majority needed to override a presidential veto, they need GOP votes to tip the scales and force legislation ending the war.
According to administration officials, Bush's advisers are recommending he stand by his war strategy until the spring, and Bush is considered unlikely to order more than a symbolic cut in troops before the end of the year. Officials familiar with the assessment spoke on condition of anonymity to describe decisions not yet publicly released.
At the forefront of Democrats' minds is the more than $147 billion that Bush has said he needs to continue funding the war through budget year 2008, which begins Oct. 1.
"That's where we're going to fight the real fight on the war," said Rep. James Moran, D-Va., a member of the House panel that oversees the military budget.
Moran said an option being considered is a bill that funds the troops, but in three- or four-month installments, and directs the money pay for the logistics in bringing home the 160,000 troops in Iraq, instead of combat.
The approach is similar to those tried earlier this year by Democrats. But lacking enough GOP votes, such bills have failed to become law. Democrats say they hope the lack of political progress being made by Baghdad politicians will frustrate Republicans into jumping ship, no matter how much military progress is made.
But GOP leaders say they aren't so sure they'll lose that many votes.
"The success our troops have had put some oxygen back in the room, both for the party and the American public," said Rep. Adam Putnam, R-Fla., the No. 3 House Republican.
Speaking to reporters Wednesday during a trip to Australia, Bush restated his view that decisions about troop levels should be based on recommendations from military commanders. He noted that Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, and Ambassador Ryan Crocker would be delivering progress reports soon enough.
Petraeus and Crocker are scheduled to testify before House committees on Sept. 10 and Senate panels on Sept. 11.
"Whether or not that's part of the policy I announce to the nation ... why don't we see what they say and then I'll let you know," Bush said.
Republican support likely will hinge on Petraeus' testimony next week. If he can convince lawmakers that the security gains won in recent months are substantial and point toward a bigger trend - and a promise of major troop reductions next year - GOP members might be willing to hold out until spring.
They also might be persuaded to wait until April if Bush agrees to a small, symbolic drawdown of troops by the end of the year, as is suggested to the White House by Coleman and Sen. John Warner, an influential Republican on security matters.
But that would be the best case scenario for Bush in a Congress already gearing up for the 2008 election season. For their part, Democrats will use the unpopularity of the war against Republican candidates, including in the presidential election. Support for cutting off money for the war also is likely to grow, if Bush insists on keeping troops in Iraq at heightened levels through spring.
Democratic presidential hopeful John Edwards said Wednesday that Congress shouldn't give Bush any more money for the war without a deadline for troops to come home.
"No timeline, no funding. No excuses," according to a campaign statement.
Bush's upcoming assessment on the war comes as a congressional watchdog agency concluded that Iraq has made little political progress and mixed success with its security goals.
A senior Democrat, Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Mo., opened a hearing Wednesday by the House Armed Services Committee saying: "We are left asking ourselves why we should expect this record to be different in the future and whether American efforts will be of any effect."
Skelton, the chairman, said, "it's not clear to me why we should continue to move ahead with this strategy at the cost of American lives and dollars if the Iraqis are not stepping forward."
On the other hand, a senior Republican said he was very concerned, "we are turning a blind eye" to progress. Rep. Jim Saxton, R-N.J., countering Skelton and other Democrats, said: "Let's be honest the military surge, which reached full strength in mid-June, is working."
U.S. Comptroller General David Walker, who oversaw the study, told the committee the Congress and White House should decide upon a clear mission of U.S. forces.
"It's time to reassess what are our goals, what are our objectives and who should be doing what," Walker said.
---
Associated Press writer Barry Schweid contributed to this report.
No comments:
Post a Comment