Thursday, March 15, 2012

Despite legal limbo, U.S. 35 moves ahead

Even though the fate of U.S. 35 remains in the hands of the stateSupreme Court, the Parkways Authority is taking steps to moveforward in anticipation of the court's blessing.

The state's plan to finance the construction of the remaining14.6 miles of four-lane highway in Mason and Putnam counties withtoll revenue was thrown into limbo when the Mason County Commissionvoted last month to rescind its approval for the plan.

The Parkways Authority filed a challenge with the Supreme Court.It contends the second vote was illegal.

The Mason commission has until Monday to file a response, but thecourt has told the authority it can proceed with project plans …

U.N. Chief Refuses Meeting With Hamas

RAMALLAH, West Bank - U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, declaring the atmosphere "not fully ripe," shunned officials from the Islamic militant Hamas group on Sunday, dealing a setback to the new Palestinian government's efforts to win international recognition.

Ban's comments came on a day of high-profile diplomacy, with the U.N. chief and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice both in the region for talks with Israeli and Palestinian leaders. Both hope their clout will help to prod the two sides to start talking peace again.

Hamas, branded a terrorist group by the U.S. and European Union, joined the more moderate Fatah Party in a coalition government last week. The …

Celebrity birthdays for the week of March 22-28

Celebrity birthdays for the week of March 22-28:

March 22: Actor Karl Malden is 97. Composer Stephen Sondheim is 79. Actor William Shatner is 78. Actor M. Emmet Walsh is 74. Singer Jeremy Clyde of Chad and Jeremy is 68. Singer-guitarist George Benson is 66. News anchor Wolf Blitzer is 61. Composer Andrew Lloyd Webber is 61. Actress Fanny Ardant is 60. Sportscaster Bob Costas is 57. Country singer James House is 54. Actress Lena Olin is 54. Singer-actress Stephanie Mills is 52. Actor Matthew Modine is 50. Actress Kellie Williams ("Family Matters") is 33. Actress Reese Witherspoon is 33. Drummer John Otto of Limp Bizkit is 32. Rapper Mims is 28.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Abundance of shortcuts to cemetery

The headline quoting President Bush blared: "We May Lose SomeBoys," referring to possible war in the Persian Gulf area.

My friend commented that it was "terrible" that young men andwomen had to face death because of a "stupid political dispute."

I noted that just the night before our conversation, three youngmen had died in the killing fields of Washington, D.C., over thingsas trivial as an argument over a girl. I asserted, with prematurerashness perhaps, that any GI on duty in the sands of Saudi Arabia isin less danger of sudden death than a youngster at a ghetto honkytonkat 1 a.m. in any big city in America.

I've thought about that remark and forced …

Controversial African studies lecturer retires

MEDWAY, Mass. - Tony Martin, whose teaching about the Jewish role in the Atlantic slave trade led to a national controversy in the 1990s, will retire quietly next month after 34 years as a professor of black studies at Wellesley College.

His retirement on June 30 marks the end of a teaching career that spans almost the entire existence of what is now the Africana Studies Department at the women's college.

Martin, 65, plans to return to his native Trinidad and continue to write scholarly books and lecture around the world on Marcus Garvey, the Jamaican Pan-Africanist who is the subject of nine books he has written or edited.

"Marcus Garvey has been the lion's share …

Pakistan: 12 Militants Killed by Missile

Twelve suspected militants died in a missile strike on a home in northwestern Pakistan on Tuesday, officials said.

The attack occurred after midnight in Khushali Torikhel, a village in North Waziristan, a tribal region bordering Afghanistan, an intelligence and a government official in the region said.

Wolves snap winless streak

The Wolves' inconsistency isn't due to a lack of pretty hockey. In fact, they've flashed skill on a par with the AHL's best at times.

The Wolves have struggled because they haven't been able to play ugly.

That changed Saturday against the Milwaukee Admirals at Allstate Arena. The Wolves picked up the physicality and were scrappy along the boards — particularly in the third period — en route to a 4-2 win. The victory snapped a five-game winless streak.

"We had better positional play in the third and executed better," Wolves coach Craig MacTavish said.

"When you haven't won in a while, winning is going to be difficult, and even with a lead, you're playing a …

WHO STAYS? WHO GOES?

Meridian reduction in force rubric will determine draconian cuts

On Wednesday, June 8, when Meridian teachers say goodbye to their students and wish them well on the final day of classes, the roles could well be reversed. Many of the educators in the state's largest school district will be packing up their lesson plans for good.

"People are panicked, they're totally panicked," said one teacher who asked to be anonymous. "It's all people are talking about, especially the kids. They're point-blank asking us, 'Are you going to lose your job? Will you be here next year?'"

Each teacher BW spoke to asked that their identity not be revealed, in fear of being singled out …

Officials: Gunmen in Somalia kidnap 3 people working with UN program to clear land mines

Gunmen in Somalia kidnapped three people _ a Swede, a Dane and a Somali _ working with a U.N. program to clear land mines in the volatile east African country, officials and residents said.

The gunmen abducted them in the town of Hudur, which is in the southwestern Bakol region, about 180 miles (290 kilometers) northwest of the capital, Mogadishu, authorities said.

Five Somali soldiers were wounded during the kidnapping, Bakol Deputy Governor Sheik Hassan Ibrahim said. He said the three work with a U.N. program to clear land mines.

The U.N. Development Program, which manages such programs in Somalia, declined to comment.

Residents said …

'Roids may ruin others, but Sosa beat tag

So, was that it, then? Sammy Sosa is just gone? He didn't even saygoodbye. He slipped out of baseball in the same way he snuck out ofChicago. Remember? He just walked out of Wrigley Field when no onewas watching, during the first inning of a game, and drove away. Didanyone get him on tape this time?

There is no celebration with this retirement, if that's what itis. No one is thanking him for coming or for making history, bothgood and bad. He just ducked out of the party through the back doorwhile the steroid cops were beating down the front door.

How will he be remembered? I remember when my little kids couldname just one athlete in the world, Sammy Sosa. It …

BATTLE OF THE BILGE; Potty Politics at Boise State

In the year 1880, the prestigious imperial contract known as the Royal Warrant was awarded to British plumbing innovator and manufacturer Thomas Crapper. In the year 2005, officials at Boise State have decided to allow outside contractors into campus crappers.

Under the rubric of "Toilet Times," leaders of the Association of Boise State University Students (ASBSU) recently approached the Campus Recreation Center, Student Union Building (SUB) and the vice president of student services with the idea of placing advertising posters inside washrooms across the entire campus. Preliminary versions of the 8-inch by 11-inch acrylic sleeves have already been mounted inside the doors of …

Corning 1Q earns slip, revenue soars

ROCHESTER, New York (AP) — Specialty glass maker Corning Inc. said Wednesday its first-quarter profit fell 8 percent, largely because of a higher tax rate. But its revenue surged 24 percent on robust sales of glass for flat-screen televisions, computers and mobile devices.

The results beat Wall Street expectations. Its shares rose 3 percent in morning trading.

The world's largest maker of liquid-crystal-display glass said its net income fell to $748 million, or 47 cents per share, in the January-March period, down from $816 million, or 52 cents per share, a year ago.

The company attributed the decline mainly to an increase in its tax rate to 13 percent from 3 percent …

U.S. Launches 2 Airstrikes in Somalia

MOGADISHU, Somalia - The U.S. launched at least two airstrikes on different locations against terror targets in Somalia, an official and witnesses said Tuesday.

A U.S. AC-130 gunship attacked suspected al-Qaida terrorists near Ras Kamboni in southern Somalia, the Somali Defense Minister said.

Earlier an eyewitness told The Associated Press that a gunship hit targets near Afmadow, 155 miles north of Ras Kamboni.

"The strike took place in Ras Kamboni," Defense Minister, Col. Barre "Hirale" Aden Shire told the AP.

In Afmadow, one eyewitness said his child died in an attack.

"My 4-year-old boy was killed in the strike," Mohamed Mahmud Burale told the AP by telephone from the outskirts of Afmadow.

Somalia's president said that the U.S. was right to launch airstrikes. "The U.S. has a right to bombard terrorist suspects who attacked its embassies in Kenya and Tanzania," President Abdullahi Yusuf told journalists in the capital, Mogadishu.

Meanwhile the U.S. military said Tuesday it had sent an aircraft carrier to join three other U.S. warships conducting anti-terror operations off the Somali coast.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Safeguards Noncompliance: A Challenge for the IAEA And the UN Security Council

Compliance with safeguards obligations is a fundamental part of a country's participation in the global nuclear nonproliferation regime. The issue of compliance was central to the contentious discussions at the 2005 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference and is likely to play a similar role at the 2010 conference.

The main objective of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as set out in its statute, is to promote "the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health, and prosperity throughout the world" while ensuring that nuclear material, equipment, facilities, and information are not used for any military purpose.1 The IAEA carries out the latter part of this mandate by establishing and implementing safeguards.

In fulfilling its nonproliferation mandate, the most important task of the IAEA is the prompt detection and reporting of unauthorized nuclear work in any nonnuclear-weapon state that is a party to the NPT. This unauthorized work may involve the diversion of nuclear material from declared facilities as well as undeclared nuclear material and activities.

IAEA inspections are designed to ensure that countries are complying with their commitments under their safeguards agreements. The UN Security Council indicated the importance of noncompliance by addressing it in the first operative paragraph of Resolution 1887, which the council adopted on September 24, 2009, during the United Nations' summit on nonproliferation and disarmament.2

Nevertheless, the international community must go beyond that resolution by adopting a refined and strengthened approach toward cases of safeguards noncompliance, which, as discussed below, has several elements. One element is how the IAEA Department of Safeguards should distinguish between cases of noncompliance that should be reported to the IAEA Board of Governors as "non-compliance" in accordance with Article XII.C of the IAEA statute and cases that constitute only technical or legal compliance failures and therefore need be reported only in the annual Safeguards Implementation Report, if at all.3 The board, when it finds that the agency is unable to resolve a case of noncompliance promptly, should not hesitate to request additional verification rights from the UN Security Council. The latter, in turn, should take steps to improve the likelihood of prompt and effective action when confronted with persistent cases of noncompliance or with withdrawal from the NPT.

The Safeguards Department's Role

In examining IAEA responsibilities, it is necessary to distinguish between the respective roles of the secretariat and the board. The IAEA Secretariat is the technical arm of the agency in charge of detecting any technical or legal noncompliance with the safeguards agreements concluded between the IAEA and a state. The secretariat is expected to perform this task in the most objective and nondiscriminatory way possible, without the influence of any political considerations.

The fact that there is no official definition of what constitutes noncompliance should not be used as an excuse by the secretariat for not reporting promptly, fully, and factually any significant or intentional failure or breach of safeguards undertakings, including those of agreed "subsidiary arrangements."4

In judging whether a failure is intentional, the Department of Safeguards should, inter alia, take into account whether any state organization, including the state system of accounting for and control of nuclear material, knew of undeclared nuclear material (whatever its quantity), facilities, or activities that should have been declared to the IAEA.

Denying access to a declared or suspected facility or location, as well as not allowing inspectors to take environmental samples as requested by the IAEA, is by definition intentional. If such a denial is prolonged, for example, more than a few days unless for legitimate safety reasons, it must be promptly reported by the Department of Safeguards to the director-general as a matter of concern. If the Department of Safeguards has the legal authority under the safeguards agreement to require such access, then the denial constitutes noncompliance.

Experience has taught that denial of prompt access to locations or refusal to take environmental samples has often been an indication of undeclared activities. This has been the case in Iran, North Korea, South Korea, and possibly Syria.

Denial of access to relevant persons and documents should also be taken seriously and reported explicitly either in the Safeguards Implementation Report or in a report to the board if the denial prevents the agency from promptly resolving questions or inconsistencies, particularly if it is not the first time that access has been denied or if it takes place in conjunction with other failures or breaches of safeguards obligations.

Evidence of intentional concealment measures or the "obstruction of the activities of IAEA inspectors, interference with the operation of safeguards equipment, or prevention of the IAEA from carrying out its verification activities"5 should be reported as noncompliance. Nuclear material that should have been declared and placed under safeguards but intentionally has not been also warrants a finding of noncompliance.

To warrant a report of noncompliance to the board, it is not necessary for the Department of Safeguards to demonstrate that the "intention" of not declaring nuclear material or activities was part of a nuclear weapons program; it is enough that the purpose was unknown.6

The Department of Safeguards should adopt as a guideline the position stated by Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei in November 2002: "I believe that while differing circumstances may necessitate asymmetric responses, in the case of noncompliance with non-proliferation obligations, for the credibility of the regime, the approach in all cases should be one and the same: zero tolerance."7 In accordance with that principle, the secretariat should have qualified the failures and breaches committed by South Korea and Egypt8 as cases of noncompliance. 9

By reporting in November 2003 that Iran was "in breach of its obligation to comply with the provisions of the Safeguards Agreements" instead of using the word "noncompliance," the term that the IAEA statute uses, ElBaradei deliberately left to the board the sole responsibility for making a formal finding of noncompliance. This ambiguous language may have played a role in politicizing what should have remained the purely technical and factual work of the secretariat.10

The assessment of Libya's violations of its safeguards agreement reported to the board in February 2004 is even more unhelpful. Although, in addition to the reported violations, Libya admitted that it had received documentation related to nuclear weapons design and fabrication and more or less explicitly acknowledged that it had a nuclear weapons program, ElBaradei did not use the term "noncompliance." This set a bad precedent and amounted to a contradiction of his 2002 statement cited above. Fortunately, the board found Libya in noncompliance and requested the director-general to "report the matter to the Security Council for information purposes only, while commending [Libya] for the actions it has taken to date, and has agreed to take, to remedy the non-compliance."11 The Security Council held a meeting on April 22, 2004, to consider the matter and, via its president, welcomed Libya's active cooperation with the IAEA and its decision to abandon its weapons of mass destruction programs.

Finding a state in noncompliance with its safeguards agreement is not the only reason for the IAEA to submit reports to the Security Council. If, in the course of their duties, Department of Safeguards inspectors encounter "questions that are within the competence of the Security Council as the organ bearing the main responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security," the IAEA statute suggests that these questions should be reported to the board and then by the board to the Security Council. 12 In addition,

Paragraph 19 of the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement gives the Board the power to find a state in noncompliance if "the Agency is not able to verify that there has been no diversion of nuclear material." In other words, a finding of noncompliance by the board does not require the Department of Safeguards to verify that there has been a diversion. Noncooperation by a state, thus preventing the Agency from verifying that no diversion has taken place can be sufficient grounds for noncompliance.13

One nonproliferation official recently said that when it comes to unanswered questions, obstruction, or access denials, the same significance should be ascribed "to the inability of the Agency to conclude absence of undeclared activities as to a finding of non-compliance."14 According to the official, "[r]he experience accumulated over the last 20 years clearly indicates that a 'smoke screen' usually is as telling and dangerous as a 'smoking gun.'"15

In summary, the IAEA statute requires the director-general to transmit to the board all noncompliance reports made by the Department of Safeguards. Unlike the board, the secretariat is expected to act as a technical and totally apolitical body in order to maintain its reputation of objectivity and impartiality.

It will be one of the main tasks of the new director-general, Yukiya Amano, to restore member states' confidence that the IAEA Secretariat will promptly, fully, and factually report on safeguards noncompliance in accordance with the agency's statute.

Handling Noncompliance Reports

The IAEA board, which is a political body, must decide whether the safeguards breaches and failures reported by the secretariat, whether or not the term "noncompliance" has been used, constitute noncompliance under the statute and, if so, when they must be reported to the UN Security Council. The statute does not specify the criteria that the board should use to arrive at a finding. Given the difference in roles, the criteria presumably will not necessarily be the same as those used by the secretariat in determining whether technical or legal noncompliance must be reported to the board.

The goal here is not to focus the debate on whether the board should have found South Korea and Egypt in noncompliance in 2004 and 2005, respectively, and thereafter reported the cases to the Security Council for information purposes only. In the case of South Korea, which had ratified an additional protocol and subsequently fully cooperated with the IAEA, there was no need for Security Council action. Thanks to South Korea's cooperation, the agency was able to conclude in 2007 that the country did not have any undeclared nuclear material or activities and that all nuclear material remained in peaceful activities.

In the case of Egypt, the IAEA did not find any indication that the reported failures and breaches were part of concealment efforts or a deception strategy. As in the case of South Korea, there was no indication in Egypt of any military involvement in or connection with nuclear-related activities. Because Egypt does not have an additional protocol in force, however, the IAEA is not in a position to conclude that there are no undeclared nuclear material and activities in the state as a whole. Also, as reported in the 2008 Safeguards Implementation Report, the IAEA has so far been unable to identify the source of the highly enriched uranium and low-enriched uranium particles found in environmental samples taken at the Nuclear Research Center of Inshas. The fact that there are still open questions about Egypt's nuclear activities almost five years after the failures and breaches were first reported to the board should be a cause of concern. Progress on these issues should be reported to the board separately from the Safeguards Implementation Report.

These long-standing open questions help demonstrate why the board should have at least adopted resolutions expressing its concern, as ElBaradei did in his reports, about the failures and breaches discovered in South Korea and Egypt, even if the board found it unnecessary to make a finding of noncompliance under the statute.

In the case of Iran, the IAEA board adopted in September 2003 a resolution calling on that country to "suspend all further uranium enrichment-related activities, including the further introduction of nuclear material into [the] Natanz [enrichment plant] . . .pending provision by the Director General of the assurances required by Member States, and pending satisfactory application of the provisions of the additional protocol."16 The resolution also called on Iran to grant "unrestricted access, including environmental sampling, for the Agency to whatever locations the Agency deems necessary for the purposes of verification of the correctness and completeness of Iran's declarations."17

In the spring of 2004, it already had become apparent that Iran was not abiding by the September 2003 resolution. In a resolution adopted on June 18, 2004, the board acknowledged "the statement by the Director General on 14 June that it is essential for the integrity and credibility of the inspection process to bring these issues to a close within the next few months."18 Apparently, the international community subsequently lost sight of the importance of this time factor. Once a significant or deliberate breach of safeguards agreements has been identified or if a state obstructs or delays verification activities, as is presently the case also in Syria, action by the board and possibly by the UN Security Council becomes urgent.19

In its September 18, 2004, resolution, the board noted "with serious concern that. . .Iran has not heeded repeated calls from the Board to suspend, as a confidence building measure, all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities."20 It was clear by then that the IAEA needed legally binding verification rights extending beyond those provided under the Model Additional Protocol. Only the UN Security Council, by adopting a resolution under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, which addresses threats to international peace and security, is in a position to provide those legal rights to the IAEA Secretariat; its board cannot.

It was only after Iran's August 2005 breach of its November 2004 expanded commitment to suspend the conversion of uranium concentrates to uranium hexafluoride that the board found Iran to have been noncompliant. The vote on the September 24, 2005, resolution was 22-1, with 12 abstentions.

One good thing about the September 2005 resolution is that the board found "that Iran's many failures and breaches of its obligation to comply with its NPT Safeguards Agreement, as detailed in [the November 10, 2003 report to the board] constitute non compliance in the context of Article XII.C" of the statute.21 By confirming that the findings reported in November 2003 constituted noncompliance, the board mitigated the unhelpful precedent it had set at that time by refraining from a noncompliance finding. However, by the time the board, on February 4, 2006, finally decided to report the noncompliance to the Security Council,22 and 10 months later the council adopted a resolution that legally required Iran to suspend its enrichment-related activities,23 it was too late to stop Iran from disregarding these directives.

The Security Council's Role

Under the statute, a country that the IAEA board finds to be in noncompliance must be referred to the Security Council. The board is not obliged to make this report immediately if it wishes to give the noncompliant state sufficient time to implement the necessary corrective actions. If the noncompliant state fully and proactively cooperates with the agency, the board will refer the case to the council for information purposes only, while likely praising the state for its constructive attitude, as it did in the case of Libya. If the noncompliant state uses delaying and deceptive tactics and does not provide prompt access to locations, equipment, documents, and relevant persons, the agency may temporarily need from the UN Security Council legally binding expanded verification rights.

As exemplified by the cases of Iran and North Korea, one of the greatest difficulties in deterring states from violating their nonproliferation undertakings and from ignoring legally binding Security Council resolutions is their hope that, for geopolitical or economic reasons, at least one of the five veto-wielding members of the council will oppose the adoption of effective sanctions.

To guarantee a timely council reaction in cases of noncompliance with safeguards agreements and to increase the likelihood of negative consequences for a state that does not comply with council and IAEA resolutions, the council should adopt a generic - that is, not state-specific - resolution under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter.24 To give the IAEA the verification tools it needs in case a noncompliant state does not adequately cooperate with the agency to resolve pending issues, the resolution should provide that, "upon request by the agency," the Security Council would automatically adopt a specific resolution under Chapter 7 requiring that the state grant the IAEA extended access rights, as set out in a "temporary complementary protocol."25 These rights would be terminated as soon as the IAEA Secretariat and board have drawn the conclusion that the country has no undeclared nuclear material or activities and that its declarations to the IAEA are correct and complete.

Under the multistage process foreseen in this generic resolution, if the IAEA director-general were unable to report within 60 days of the adoption of the state-specific resolution that the noncompliant state was fully implementing the temporary complementary protocol, the Security Council would adopt a second specific resolution requiring the state to suspend immediately all enrichment- and reprocessing-related activities.

If the noncompliant state further refused to implement the relevant Security Council resolutions fully, the Security Council would adopt a third Chapter 7 resolution calling on all states to suspend military cooperation, including the supply of equipment, with the noncompliant state as long as it remained in noncompliance with council and IAEA resolutions. A priori council agreement that all military cooperation with that state would be suspended in these circumstances should constitute a strong disincentive for states to defy legally binding council resolutions, but would in no way affect the wellbeing of ordinary citizens.

Had such a generic resolution existed before 2002, the foreign ministers of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (the EU-3) would not have negotiated the October 2003 deal in Tehran. Under that deal, Iran agreed "voluntarily to suspend all enrichment activities as defined by the IAEA"26 while the September 2003 board resolution had called on Iran to suspend all further enrichment-related activities, a term that is much broader in scope. In exchange for this limited and nonbinding pledge to the EU-3, Iran received the tacit commitment of the three countries not to support an IAEA resolution referring Iran's noncompliance to the Security Council. By failing to find Iran in noncompliance in November 2003, the IAEA board created a damaging precedent with far-reaching consequences that are still felt today.

Withdrawing From the NPT

Another particularly threatening case for international peace and security is the withdrawal from the NPT of a non-nuclearweapon state that has been found by the IAEA to be in noncompliance with its safeguards agreement. As has been stressed on many occasions, the great benefit that the NPT brings to the international community would be dangerously eroded if countries violating their safeguards agreements or the NPT felt free to withdraw from the treaty, develop nuclear weapons, and enjoy the fruits of their violation with impunity.

To address this issue, the Security Council should adopt under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter another generic and legally binding resolution, stating that a country's withdrawal from the NPT (an undisputed right under the treaty's Article X.l) after being found by the IAEA to be in noncompliance with its safeguards undertakings constitutes a threat to international peace and security, under Article 39 of the UN Charter.27 This generic resolution should also provide that, under these circumstances, all materials and equipment made available to such a state or resulting from the assistance provided to it under a comprehensive safeguards agreement would have to be sealed by the IAEA and, as soon as technically possible, removed from that state under IAEA supervision and remain under agency safeguards. If the state still refused to comply, then any military cooperation between that state and other UN member states would be suspended.

Another important preventive measure would be for the IAEA board to urge all states with enrichment or reprocessing facilities to conclude "back-up" safeguards agreements that would not terminate in case of NPT withdrawal.28

Conclusion

IAEA safeguards play a key role in the international community's attempts to ensure that nuclear energy is used in non-nuclear-weapon states exclusively for peaceful purposes. By deterring states from seeking nuclear weapons, safeguards play a major role in preventing proliferation. Yet, deterrence can be effective only if states believe that noncompliance has a strong chance of being detected and if its detection has consequences.

President Barack Obama noted both elements in his 2009 Prague speech: "We need more resources and authority to strengthen international inspections. We need real and immediate consequences for countries caught breaking the rules or trying to leave the treaty without cause."29

The IAEA should not be complacent toward states violating their nonproliferation undertakings. That said, the weakest link in the nonproliferation regime today is not the performance of the IAEA Department of Safeguards but that of the international community in responding to noncompliance. The burden here falls largely on the IAEA board and the UN Security Council.

The adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1887, which emphasizes that noncompliance with nonproliferation obligations must be brought to the attention of the Security Council, is a significant but insufficient step in the right direction. It is a call for states to strengthen the NPT and to comply fully with all their obligations, to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, to adopt stricter national controls for the export of sensitive nuclear fuel-cycle technologies, and more. However, states are not obliged to follow the recommendations contained in the resolution.

Therefore, states should discuss and agree on legally binding generic procedures for to noncompliance. Because of the Security Council would not which states might be involved in the such discussions should be easier and acrimonious than they would be during the heat of a crisis. An agreement on a set of standard responses to be applied evenhandedly to any state found in noncompliance, regardless of its allies, would significantly enhance the credibility of the nonproliferation regime.

Finally, considering the precedent that North Korea set in 2003, it is necessary to plan for the possibility of another state withdrawing from the NPT. The most critical step would be for the Security Council to adopt a resolution, under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, deciding that the withdrawal of a noncompliant state from the NPT would be considered a threat to international peace and security.

If adopted, the concrete measures recommended in this article would make a real difference in protecting against nuclear proliferation; but all countries, not only the five permanent members of the Security Council, will first need to acknowledge that these measures should be adopted now in order to mitigate the consequences of the next potential proliferation crisis. Protecting against that dangerous prospect is in everyone's best security interest.

[Sidebar]

The UN Security Council votes on December 23, 2006, for a resolution imposing sanctions on Iran for failure to halt uranium enrichment.

[Sidebar]

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei (left) and U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Christopher Hill talk to the press at IAEA headquarters in Vienna after a November 2007 meeting on verifying North Korea's denuclearization process.

IAEA inspectors arrive at South Korea's lncheon International Airport in November 2004. The IAEA concluded in 2007 that the country did not have any undeclared nuclear material or activities.

[Sidebar]

By failing to find Iran in noncompliance in November 2003, the IAEA board created a damaging precedent with far-reaching consequences that are still felt today.

[Author Affiliation]

Pierre Goldschmidt is a nonresident senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former deputy director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency as head of the Department of Safeguards. He wishes to acknowledge the valuable exchange of views with Ambassador Peter Jenkins during the preparation of this article and the constructive comments on previous drafts by James Acton and Nima Gerami.

MP praises Minis' values

BATH MINIS Bath MP Don Foster surprised around 250 mini rugbyplayers and their parents when he visited The Rec on Sunday.

Foster was there to support Bath Youth Rugby Minis in theirmatches against Cheddar Valley and Yeovil side Ivel Barbarians. Hewas particularly impressed with the TREDS values (Teamwork, Respect,Enjoyment, Discipline and Sportsmanship) the minis have adopted.

"It's fantastic to see so many youngsters enjoying themselves andplaying with such skill and commitment," said Foster.

"This is exactly the kind of activity we need to encourage inBath and at The Rec."

Peter Morgan, head of Bath's minis section, was delighted Fosterhad made time to drop in and offer encouragement to the players andparents.

"We are so lucky at Bath Minis," Morgan said. "We have The Rec toplay on, the very active support of Bath Rugby and now support fromour local MP.

"The Rec Charter states that use of The Rec is 'principally foror in connection with the carrying on of games and sports'. We atBath Mini Rugby are a shining example of an organisation that isdelivering games and sports to local children.

"Our team of 30-plus qualified coaches provide fun anddevelopment of physical skills, teamwork and self-discipline fornearly 200 children regardless of ability or ability to pay.

"In my view, we are just one reason that we must keep rugby atThe Rec."

Solid phase DNA amplification: A simple Monte Carlo lattice model

ABSTRACT Recently, a new way to amplify DNA, called solid phase amplification (SPA), has been introduced. SPA differs from the traditional polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in the use of surface-bound instead of freely-diffusing primers to amplify DNA. This limits the amplification to two-dimensional surfaces and therefore allows the easy parallelization of DNA amplification in a single system. Furthermore, SPA could provide an alternate route to DNA target implantation on DNA chips for genomic studies. Standard PCR processes are usually characterized (at least initially) by an exponential growth and a broad population distribution, and they are well described by the theory of branching processes, wherein a generating function can be used to obtain the probability distribution function for the population of offspring. This theoretical approach is not appropriate for SPA because it cannot properly take into account the many-body (steric) and geometric effects in a quenched two-dimensional environment. In this article, we propose a simple Lattice Monte Carlo technique to model SPA. We study the growth, stability, and morphology of isolated DNA colonies under various conditions. Our results indicate that, in most cases, SPA is characterized by a geometric growth and a rather sharp size distribution. Various non-ideal effects are studied, and we demonstrate that such effects do not generally change the nature of the process, except in extreme cases.

INTRODUCTION

Since its invention in 1983, the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has transformed molecular biology by allowing researchers to make unlimited copies of a single DNA fragment in a matter of hours. PCR is usually performed by first mixing the necessary components in a vial. The amplification then takes place in all of the available volume. Usually, only one target sequence is amplified for each PCR experiment. This means that if different DNA strands are amplified simultaneously (i.e., Multiplex PCR), they have to be separated afterward (using, for example, gel electrophoresis; see Pang et al., 2002). Recently, a new type of DNA amplification, called solid phase amplification (SPA), has been introduced by two different groups: Adessi et al. (2000) and Bing et al. (1996). By attaching the primers to a solid surface, SPA allows an amplification limited to a well-defined two-dimensional area. Since it results in a spatially located amplification, it is possible to amplify a large number of different DNA strands in the same experiment (i.e., onto the same solid surface) without mixing them. This characteristic could be very useful for the design of DNA chips.

It is common to make use of the theory of branching processes to model PCR (Peccoud and Jacob, 1996). In this framework, a generating function provides the probability distribution function for the number of offspring, given the initial number of molecules and the total number of PCR cycles. However, the theory of branching processes is not appropriate in the case of SPA because it cannot take into account the many-body interactions in a quenched environment such as molecular crowding (a chain has less chance to produce an offspring when surrounded by other chains). Furthermore, such theories cannot provide any spatial or density information. In this article, we propose a simple approach to modeling SPA. We reduce the system to a lattice model where a given site can be either occupied by one DNA molecule or left empty. Monte Carlo techniques are then used to simulate the amplification process, i.e., the growth of the colony. The model is thus reminiscent of the models used for the growth of tumors and bacterial colonies (Eden, 1961; Meinhardt, 1982; Sams et al., 1997; Wagner et al., 1999; Williams and Bjerknes, 1972; Ziqin and Boquan, 1995).

This article is organized as follows. The next section describes and explains the PCR process and reviews the standard way to model PCR, the branching process theory. The following two sections then introduce the new technique of solid phase DNA amplification and our Monte Carlo lattice model and results, respectively. We end with our discussion and conclusions.

SOLUTION PCR

PCR is based on the activity of polymerase, a naturally occurring enzyme that acts on a single stranded DNA fragment (ssDNA) and generates its complementary strand. Two characteristics of polymerase make PCR possible. First, polymerase cannot copy a DNA chain without a short sequence of nucleotides to "prime" the process, i.e., to get the process started. This initial stretch of DNA is called a primer. The primers are generated synthetically and are designed to complement a specific sequence at one end of the target sequence (the section of the DNA fragment that needs to be amplified). The other essential characteristic of polymerase is that it can only act on one end (the 3'-end) of the primer. This comes from the structure of the sugar molecules used in the DNA double helix. In a PCR experiment, two primers are usually required (one for each strand). By carefully choosing these two primers, it is possible to multiply a selected section of the total DNA fragment: only the section contained between the two primers (the target sequence) is then amplified (Fig. 1).

In a typical PCR experiment, the four necessary components-piece(s) of DNA, large quantities of the four nucleotides (adenine A, cytosine C, guanine G, and thymine T), large quantities of the two primers, and DNA polymerases -are mixed in an aqueous solution (the buffer, which is also used to maintain proper pH and salt concentrations). The PCR process itself usually consists of sequentially heating (to denature the double-stranded DNA), cooling down (to allow the primers to hybridize to the ssDNA fragments) and reheating the mixture (to allow the polymerase to complete the double helix). Those three steps are respectively called denaturation, annealing, and extension (see Fig. 1). After a few cycles, exact replicas of the target sequence have been produced. In the subsequent cycles, dsDNA of both the original molecules and the copies are used as templates. Solution PCR is thus characterized, at least initially (after a while, a lack of nucleotide and/or primer and/or enzyme can affect the growth rate), by an exponential growth. After several cycles, the pool is greatly enriched in pieces of DNA containing the target sequence. In ~ 1 h, as many as n = 25 cycles can be completed, giving up to a 2^sup 25^ [Asymptotically = to] 67-million-fold increase in the amount of the target sequence.

In practice, however, PCR amplification is not perfect. For example, a PCR thermal cycle can finish before the polymerase has completely copied the DNA. The copy is then said to be a sterile molecule and it is unable to replicate in the following cycle. It is also possible that the molecule simply does not find a matching primer in the annealing phase. These phenomena slow down the growth of the population size. Therefore, the expected population grows like ~y^sup n^, with y < 2 (typically y [Asymptotically = to] 1.9; see Bing et al., 1996). Nonspecific hybridization of the primer can also occur and can lead to the amplification of nonspecific PCR products. The case of a primer using the other primer as a template leads to the formation of primer-dimers (Brownie et al., 1997; Halford et al., 1999; Hogdall et al., 1999; Markoulatos et al., 2002; Nazarenko et al., 2002; Wabuyele and Soper, 2001). Because they contain both primer annealing sites, primer-dimers are valid templates and are amplified very efficiently. They may even become the predominant PCR product. To avoid mis-hybridization and the formation of primer-dimers, great care must be taken in the primer design and in the choice of experimental conditions. For example, too short a primer (primer lengths of 18-30 bases are optimal for most PCR applications), complementarity among the 3' ends of the two primers, low annealing temperatures, high enzyme concentrations, and high primer concentrations have all been shown to increase the frequency of primer-dimer formation (Brownie et al., 1997; Markoulatos et al., 2002). As previously mentioned, solution PCR leads, at least initially, to an exponential amplification of the target sequence. This is due to the fact that every molecule (the original ones as well as the copies) can be duplicated at each cycle. Solution PCR is thus characterized by the yield of the reaction, p, which is the probability that a DNA molecule produces a fertile copy during a cycle. The growth remains exponential as long as p stays constant. It is the case for the first cycles because PCR is usually carried out with a large excess of reagents (nucleotides, primers, and polymerases) such that the DNA molecules do not have to compete to copy themselves. After a while (typically 20 cycles), however, there are not enough reagents to satisfy all the DNA targets, and both the reaction yield p and the growth rate decrease. Unless the reaction yield p is equal to 1 or 0, PCR is a random process. If we start with a single copy of the target, the population could be anywhere between 1 and 2^sup n^ after n amplification cycles. To simulate this amplification, a simple Monte Carlo procedure can obviously be useful. However, since PCR is intrinsically a simple discrete process, branching theory can also be used (Peccoud and Jacob, 1996). This straightforward, yet powerful theory allows one to quickly

PCR is often used to detect substances that are present in very small concentrations (e.g., viral DNA). It is highly effective if one only wants to know if a given substance is present or not. A harder task is quantitative PCR (Q-PCR) where one's goal is to determine the initial number of molecules (m^sub 0^), given the final population (m^sub n^) of a single experiment, the (estimated) amplification yield p, and the number of PCR cycles (n) (Boom et al., 2002; He et al., 2002; Stevens et al., 2002). Fig. 2 shows why Q-PCR is difficult in practice. When the amplification yield p is small, the probability distribution is broad and has a large standard deviation. On the other hand, when p is large, the distribution is multimodal. Note that Fig. 2 represents the extreme case where the initial number of molecules is 1. The situation is less critical when m^sub 0^ is larger. However, it is precisely when the number of initial molecules is very small and cannot be directly detected using other methods that PCR should be used! Furthermore, the final number of molecules is only known approximately and it is very hard to have a reliable value for the amplification yield p. Nevertheless, Q-PCR has been shown to be useful. It is used, for example, to provide an estimate of the virus load during HIV and hepatic infections (Boom et al., 2002; Stevens et al, 2002).

SOLID PHASE AMPLIFICATION

The central idea of this novel method is to attach the 5'-end of the primers to a surface (silica, polystyrene bead, . . .) instead of letting the primers freely diffuse in a bulk solution (see Fig. 3 a) (Adessi et al., 2000; Bing et al, 1996). The primers then form a very dense carpet (the density is ~10^sup 11^ primers per mm^sup 2^-Adessi et al., 2000-which corresponds to a mean distance of the order of ~5-10 nm between primers; note that this is similar to the contour length of a primer). In this context, the amplification can occur via two processes. First, a freely diffusing DNA target can be captured on the surface and then copied by the polymerase (see Fig. 3, a-d). This is called interfacial amplification. Note that the copy stays attached to the surface whereas the initial DNA molecule returns to the solution after the annealing step. After several DNA copies are attached to the surface via interfacial amplification, a second type of amplification can take place. In this case, the free end of the attached copy hybridizes to the primer (attached to the surface) complementary to its sequence, and the amplification process can start (see Fig. 3, e-l). It is important to note that this surface amplification process leaves both molecules attached to the surface, hence its name. Therefore, solid phase DNA amplification leads to the growth of a colony of molecules attached to the surface and located in the same region. This characteristic could easily be exploited in the design of DNA microarrays.

The procedure for solid phase amplification can be separated in three distinct steps-annealing, extension, and denaturation-which are repeated in an iterative way. In the first cycle, interfacial amplification is the only type of amplification possible. The result of the first cycle is thus to obtain a certain number of target DNAs attached to the surface via the primers. In subsequent cycles, surface amplification is also possible since some of the target DNAs are now attached to the surface. However, when the two types of amplification process coexist, interfacial amplification is usually predominant (Adessi et al., 2000). Therefore, to obtain surface amplification, the initial solution has to be washed away and replaced with a solution free of DNA targets. Surface amplification is then the only amplification possible and the temperature cycles can be started again. The net result of a surface amplification event is to obtain a new ssDNA molecule attached to the surface in the immediate proximity of the initial strand (Fig. 3, h-i). Note that the length of the molecules used in SPA is typically 400 bases (contour length of ~170 nm). The radius of gyration in the hybridization phase (ssDNA) is thus ~15-20 nm which is larger than the mean distance between nearest-neighbor primers (~5-10 nm). Also, a typical DNA length is much larger than the persistent length of ssDNA (~10 bases or ~4 nm) but is similar to that of dsDNA (~150 basepairs or ~51 nm). Therefore, the molecule is very flexible in the hybridization phase, and has no problem bending to find matching primers. However, at the end of the elongation phase (when the molecule is completely double-stranded), it becomes quite rigid and must be under considerable bending stress.

Surface amplification results in an area covered with copies of both strands of the original DNA target. This can be seen as a DNA colony. The number of colonies depends on the number of DNA targets captured (via interfacial amplification) before the initial solution is washed. If different DNA targets are captured, many types of colonies will exist on the surface.

Two strategies can be used for primer implantation. Specific primers can be used so that the hybridization (and the amplification) is only possible for a specific DNA target. A chip can then be designed so that each sub-area is specific for one target, and it is possible to detect target sequences without using solution-based primer sets, hybridization, or electrophoresis (Bing et al., 1996). Another approach consists of adding, at both ends of the nucleic acid templates to be analyzed, the linker sequences complementary to the immobilized primers (Adessi et al., 2000). In this case, it is possible to amplify each template molecule irrespective of their actual sequence. Note that the colonies are then randomly arrayed. If the colonies are far enough from each other (favored by using a small concentration of DNA targets in the initial solution), each colony is amplified but remains isolated from the others (no merging occurs between neighboring colonies). SPA thus allows the parallelization of the DNA amplification process without any direct human intervention. In both scenarios, the actual growth of the colonies is similar.

The process described in Fig. 3 corresponds to the ideal case in which the primer cannot be removed from the surface. In reality, the successive heating and cooling of the solution can cause the primer to detach from the surface. A recent study (Adessi et al., 2000) showed that, even in the most suitable case, up to 50% of the primers had detached after 28 cycles. Of course, the primers can also detach after a DNA target has been "attached" to it. Therefore, after a couple of cycles, the solution can contain some free diffusing targets and primers. In this context, solution PCR followed by interfacial amplification is still possible in principle. However, experimental work (Adessi et al., 2000) showed that this process is negligible, perhaps because of the very small concentration of DNA targets and primers present in solution. It is also possible to avoid solution PCR completely by changing the chemical mix at each cycle.

The number of molecules in a given SPA colony does not increase exponentially (with the exception of the first few cycles) as in the case for solution PCR. The reason is molecular crowding. Two free molecules separated by less then their radius of gyration (R^sub g^) will interact sterically with each other, and will tend to repulse each other. In SPA, a duplicated molecule (child), will always be in the vicinity of the original molecule (parent). Therefore, the parent molecule will not be able to bend and make a new molecule in the vicinity of its child and vice versa. When a molecule is completely surrounded by others, its free end tends to move away form the surface (like in a dense polymer brush; Currie et al., 2000; Netz and Schick, 1998; Skvortsov et al., 1999). Therefore, after a few cycles, a molecule at the center of the colony (which is thus surrounded by others) will have a smaller duplication probability (its free end is less likely to find a matching primer on the surface). Because of this phenomenon, a DNA colony should be characterized by a roughly constant density and should grow outwards, i.e., from its perimeter. Since only the perimeter can reproduce freely, the growth cannot be exponential.

Like in solution PCR, a SPA cycle can finish before the polymerase has completely copied the DNA, resulting in a sterile molecule. In solution PCR, this simply reduces the growth rate of the amplification. In SPA the impact can be more severe because the sterile molecule is attached to the surface and will interact sterically with its neighbor. When the edge of the colony is obstructed by sterile molecules, the latter can act as a fence and slow down, or even stop, the growth of the colony. Note that there is a certain (small) probability for a sterile molecule to become fertile again in subsequent cycles (the sterile molecule may rehybridize to a fertile molecule, allowing the polymerase to complete its DNA sequence).

SIMULATING SOLID PHASE AMPLIFICATION

As mentioned previously, the branching process theory is not appropriate for solid phase DNA amplification because it is based on the assumption that the amplification yield is the same for all molecules and remains unchanged over all cycles. Although somewhat realistic in the case of solution PCR, those assumptions are obviously not valid for SPA because of the many-body (steric) interactions (see Solution PCR). In this section, we propose a simple lattice Monte Carlo system to model SPA and we present simulation results.

The simplest possible system, where a molecule can only create a copy of itself on an empty lattice site immediately adjacent to its position (with a probability 0 < p < or = 1), is considered in The Basic System. In the following subsections, the model is generalized to include sterile molecules (Sterilization) and molecules detaching from the surface (Detachment). In The Colony Density Profile, the model is further generalized to allow a greater density at the center of the colony. To do so, two alternatives are explored (adding a probability for a molecule to generate a copy of itself in between existing molecules and allowing more than one molecule to occupy each site of the lattice). In each case, the growth of the colony is examined as well as its stability and morphology.

As we shall see, a realistic representation of a SPA experiment must include many parameters. Also, while a lattice representation greatly simplifies the simulation, some important choices are still necessary regarding the algorithm itself. Choosing a good algorithm and a good set of parameters likely requires a combination of precise experimental data and microscopic simulations, e.g., detailed and extensive molecular dynamics or Brownian dynamics simulations of realistic chains attached to surfaces. Instead of trying all possible options and sets of parameters, educated guesses are made, allowing an overview of the possibilities and an understanding of the general phenomenon of SPA. Therefore, this work should not be seen as a final product, but rather as a starting point, aiming at guiding what needs to be done experimentally and in terms of microscopic simulations.

The basic system

The simplest way to model SPA is to use a lattice algorithm where each site can be either occupied by a ssDNA molecule or left empty (an empty site is actually occupied by several primers since the latter form a dense carpet). Fig. 4 shows a simple example of such a system. At each thermal cycle, a ssDNA molecule can either generate a copy on one of its empty nearest neighbor sites or stay inactive. Although very simple, this model better represents SPA than branching processes because it includes the essence of the molecular crowding phenomenon, i.e., when all the nearest neighbors of a molecule are occupied, the latter cannot produce further copies. The model thus assumes that the duplicated molecules are always roughly at the same distance from the original molecules and that once a molecule is surrounded by four others (we use a square lattice), its free end remains away from the surface so that it cannot duplicate.

The simulation algorithm goes as follows. A molecule is first placed at the center of a square lattice. At each cycle, each molecule makes one attempt to copy itself into one of its empty nearest neighbor sites (if any). If more than one such site is available to a molecule, one of them is chosen randomly, but the molecule still has only one chance (per cycle) to make a copy. Therefore, two molecules can try to generate a copy onto the same site, but only one can be successful. Each attempt has a probability p of being successful. When a molecule is completely surrounded by others (i.e., all its nearest neighbors are occupied by other molecules), it cannot produce any more copies. Note that a colony is actually made of both strands of the original DNA target (see Solid Phase Amplification). We do not, however, distinguish between the two types.

Fig. 7 shows the distribution of colony sizes for p = 10% to p = 90% with 10% intervals. The distributions are much sharper than the one obtained for solution PCR (compare to Fig. 2). This is so because solid phase amplification is less sensitive to failures in the first few thermal cycles. When normalized, the standard deviation of the distributions decreases sharply when p increases (Fig. 7, inset), as one would expect.

Sterilization

As explained in the previous section, a thermal cycle can finish before the polymerase has completely copied the DNA strand, resulting in a sterile molecule. Such a molecule is unable to produce new copies because the DNA sequence at its free end does not correspond to the primer sequences on the surface. However, a sterile molecule still occupies space; therefore, it applies steric constraints to its neighbors and can prevent them from duplicating. Note that a sterile molecule can become fertile again in subsequent cycles if it rehybridizes with a fertile molecule.

The algorithm presented in the last section was modified to account for these phenomena. First, each new molecule is now assumed to have a probability s to be born sterile (the probability to generate a sterile molecule is thus ps). Note that a sterile molecule still occupies one lattice site, and therefore prevents a fertile molecule from occupying it. We thus make the approximation that a sterile molecule, with a smaller radius of gyration, has the same steric impact as a fertile one. Second, to account for the possible rehybridization of a sterile molecule, we assume that when a fertile

When the probability r that a fertile molecule hybridizes with and completes a sterile molecule is not negligible, the impact of molecular sterility is less important. For example, we can see in Fig. 12 that the s = 0.2 curve gets closer to the s = 0.0 curve as r increases. The effect is very subtle, however, and the recombination mechanism can be neglected if s is not too large. For large values of s, however, rehybridization cannot be neglected because it is the only mechanism that ensures that a colony will not remain surrounded by sterile molecules forever. Rehybridization is then the key to continuous growth.

Note that sterile molecules can affect the shape of the colonies. While extremely symmetric when no or only a small fraction of the molecules are sterile, the colonies become more asymmetric when the fraction of the sterile molecules is increased (results not shown). This is so because a small number of consecutive sterile molecules can completely block a direction of growth for the colony. The colony then has to go around the blocked section, leading to an asymmetrical growth.

Detachment

Until now, we have assumed that a primer (or an attached molecule) cannot be removed from the surface. In reality, the successive heating and cooling phases can cause the primer to break away from the surface. The algorithm was further modified to include this rather dramatic effect: at each cycle a molecule now has a probability x of disappearing. It is further assumed that the number of primers remains high and that it is never a limiting factor. Therefore the probability of copying a molecule p is not affected by primer detachment, and remains constant. Furthermore, a site that has just been vacated by the detachment of a molecule cannot be distinguished from a site that has never been occupied. Note that it is also assumed that the detachment of a molecule occurs at the beginning of a thermal cycle in the denaturation phase when the solution is heated and that the probability x is independent of the number of cycles.

Fig. 13 shows the average size of the colony as a function of the number of cycles for various values of x. The probability for a molecule to make a copy was set to p = 0.4, the sterile molecules were neglected (s = r = 0), the number of thermal cycles was set to n = 100, and the results were averaged over 100,000 colonies. An increase in the probability of molecular detachment results in a decrease of the expected size of the colony. Furthermore, when x reaches a critical value (here x* [Asymptotically = to] 30%), the expected size of the colony actually decreases after it reaches a maximum. This means that the colonies are actually doomed to becoming extinct as the number of thermal cycles is increased; molecules simply disappear faster than they are created. Note that the data in Fig. 13 are actually an average over the colonies that survive (i.e., colonies that have at least one fertile molecule) at least n = 100 cycles. The argument is that the extinct colonies cannot be observed experimentally. If the extinct colonies are included in the average, the expected size of the colony is further reduced. Another phenomenon associated with the detachment of molecules is that as x increases, there is a possibility that a colony actually splits into two (or more) distinct parts making the results harder to interpret. Note that the actual value of x* is expected to correspond to the case where the probability of detachment in one cycle is equal to the net duplicating probability for that cycle ((1 - x)p). The value of x* is thus independent of the lattice type, but depends on the value of p. For p = 0.40, we have 0.4 (1 - x*) = x* leading to x* = 0.2857, which is consistent with our results.

The colony density profile

One drawback to using a lattice to model SPA is that the lattice rigidly fixes the maximum density of molecules (e.g., to one per lattice site). Although a uniform density seems to be a fairly good approximation, one should expect the density at the center of the colony to be somewhat higher than at the fringe. Indeed, while it is very difficult for a molecule surrounded by others to bend so that its end can find a matching primer, it is not completely impossible. This section explores three alternatives to model this phenomenon.

One simple way to model a greater density at the center of the colony is to allow a molecule to make copies of itself on interstitial lattice sites. In practice, the algorithm is modified in the following way: at each cycle, a molecule that is completely surrounded (all its nearest east-west-north-south neighbors are occupied) tries to find a primer in one of the four interstitial sites (chosen randomly) situated in between these neighbors (see Fig. 14). If that site is empty, the molecule has a probability d < p of making a copy.

Here, the average size of the colonies will be studied as a function of the number of cycles for various values of d assuming p; = 0.4, s = r = x = 0, and n - 100. Fig. 15 shows these results, averaged over 100,000 colonies. As expected, the average population size of a colony increases with d. This increase is far from being linear, though. After a fast increase when d is varied from 1% to 5%, a further increase of d causes little change to the average colony size. The reason is that the maximum density is limited, therefore a larger d simply results in a faster increase, but not in a higher density. This is an important finding because it means that the probability that a molecule produces a new copy in a dense environment cannot be neglected even if it is very small.

DISCUSSION

The simple lattice model of solid phase DNA amplification (SPA) presented in this article predicts major qualitative differences between solution PCR and SPA. First, we find that SPA cannot be characterized by an exponential growth because of the phenomenon of molecular crowding (a chain has less chance to produce an offspring when surrounded by other chains). Therefore, the molecules at the center of the colony slow, or even stop, their duplication and only the perimeter molecules can reproduce freely. The colonies thus grow outwards, i.e., from their perimeter in a geometric manner. An exponential phase can nevertheless be observed in the first few thermal cycles, when the duplication probability of all molecules is little affected by the presence of the others. Another difference between solution PCR and SPA is the probability distribution function for the population of offspring. Because SPA is less sensitive to failures in the first few thermal cycles, the distribution for the population of offspring is much sharper than the one obtained for solution PCR.

SPA characteristics (geometrical growth and sharper size distribution) are unaffected by the addition of sterile molecules or random detachment of molecules if the related probabilities do not reach critical values where they completely stop the growth of the colony. Furthermore, nonflat density profiles, obtain when the molecules at the center of the colony do not completely stop duplicating, still lead to geometrical growth and sharper size distributions than solution PCR.

The present algorithm is based on many educated assumptions currently lacking solid foundations. To test those assumptions and obtain realistic values for the parameters, a combination of precise experimental data and microscopic simulations in which the polymeric nature of the chain is explicitly taken into account, should be used. Among the possible aspects that a microscopic model could address are the time required for the free end to touch the surface and the average spatial distribution of those contacts as a function of the chain density. These simulations would provide some answers to many interrogations. For example, they would give a clear indication on the lattice best suited to model thermocycled SPA and provide a realistic description of the dependence of the probability of making a copy (p) upon the local density. Comparison with experimental data is also undoubtedly required. Growth curves, size distributions, and density profiles should be compared to experimental data to identify the relevant minimal set of parameters and to estimate their numerical values.

A reliable and quantitative model of SPA would help not only to explain experimental data, but also to optimize the experimental procedures. Also, it could be used to model more global phenomena than the growth of single isolated colonies. For example it could easily be used to model the interaction between two (or more) colonies with different characteristics.

The authors thank F. Deguerry and I. Lawrence for useful discussions.

This work was supported by a Research Grant from the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada to G.W.S. and by scholarships from Ontario Graduate Scholarship, Ontario Graduate Scholarship in Science and Technology, Fonds pour la Formation des Chercheurs et 1'Aide a la Recherche (Quebec), Manteia, and the University of Ottawa to J.F.M.

[Sidebar]

Biophysical Journal Volume 85 October 2003 2075-2086

[Reference]

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[Author Affiliation]

Jean-Francois Mercier,* Gary W. Slater,* and Pascal Mayer[dagger]

* Department of Physics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; and [dagger] Manteia Predictive Medicine S.A., Coinsins, Switzerland

[Author Affiliation]

Submitted February 17, 2003, and accepted for publication May 15, 2003.

Address reprint requests to Gary W. Slater, 150 Louis Pasteur, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1N 6N5. Tel.: 613-562-5800 x6775; Fax: 613-562-5190; E-mail: gslater@science.uottawa.ca.

Amish teen ticketed for having beer in buggy

Police cracking down on rowdy Amish youths ticketed a teenager for having beer in his horse-drawn buggy when they pulled him over on a western New York road. They said the 17-year-old was charged with underage possession of alcohol after he was stopped by deputies late Monday night in the town of Leon, 40 miles south of Buffalo.

Detective Nathan Root said the teen admitted drinking beer, but passed a field sobriety test.

Root says another Amish man in the buggy, a 22-year-old, was charged with providing the beer. Both are scheduled to be arraigned June 22.

Patrols were stepped up after an Amish elder's property was vandalized when he confronted youths about their drinking and listening to radios.

West Brom manager Mowbray charged over confrontation with referee

West Bromwich Albion manager Tony Mowbray has been charged with improper conduct for his post-game confrontation with referee Nigel Miller, who allowed a late equalizer by Sheffield Wednesday.

Mowbray was furious that Miller played six minutes of injury time and didn't disallow the Owls' 96th-minute equalizer for a foul.

"For me it's a blatant foul and the fourth official is telling me that time is finished," Mowbray said after the game finished 1-1. "Our game has got the best referees in the world but tonight is very hard to take, there were some strange decisions."

Although West Brom climbed into second place in the League Championship standings, a victory would have meant moving two points clear of third place Bristol City and within six of leader Watford. Instead, it is level on points with City and eight behind Watford.

The Football Association has charged Mowbray with improper conduct and using abusive and insulting words toward Miller.

Last season, Mowbray's team lost to Derby in the promotion playoffs.

Maurice Bank; installed 1st radios in cop cars here

Maurice Bank, 78, a Northbrook inventor, died yesterday atLutheran General Hospital in Park Ridge after a long illness.

Mr. Bank invented an intercom system and held the patent on it,said a daughter, Vivian Taitel of Northbrook.

He installed the first two-way radios in Chicago police carsabout 50 years ago and installed the communications system to theChicago water cribs in Lake Michigan off the Chicago shore, she said.

Mr. Bank was president of Excel Specialty Corp., 6335 N.Broadway, formerly Banks Manufacturing.

Other survivors include his wife, Sara; a daughter, ClaireWallenmeyer; two sisters, Helen Skolnik and Jeanette Aven; abrother, Sidney, and five grandchildren.

Funeral services will be at 2 p.m. tomorrow at Weinstein Bros.Chapel, 111 Skokie Blvd., Wilmette. Burial will be in Rosemont ParkCemetery.

Plane carrying 5 crashes in Lake Mich.; 1 rescued

A medical transport plane headed to the Mayo Clinic carrying five people crashed into Lake Michigan on Friday and one person was rescued by a boater, officials said.

U.S. Coast Guard Petty Officer Nathaniel Parks said the plane went down shortly after 10 a.m. a few miles off the shore of Ludington, a resort town on Michigan's west coast. A boater in the lake rescued one passenger about two hours later, and the search for the other four was under way.

The Cessna 206 left Alma, about 150 miles northwest of Detroit, Friday morning en route to Rochester, Minn., said Federal Aviation Administration spokeswoman Elizabeth Isham Cory. Parks said the crash was reported by a witness as well as a distress signal from the plane via satellite.

About 10 minutes before the plane went down, the pilot reported a loss of power to an air traffic controller at the Minneapolis Center, the FAA said. At the time, it was overcast with light winds and visibility of about 10 miles, the National Weather Service said.

A map of the plane's flight path from flightaware.com suggests problems developed about one-third of the way into the flight when the westbound plane doubled back over Lake Michigan. It then made a steep decline in altitude near Ludington.

Carol Freed, who owned the plane along with her husband, Jerry, said her husband that was on the plane with friend and pilot Earl Davidson. She said they regularly flew people to the Mayo Clinic in Rochester on a volunteer basis.

"We've all been to Mayo Clinic for various reasons," Carol Freed, of Alma, told The Associated Press. "A lot of people cannot get a flight there due to time constraints and cost."

She said she could not provide more information on the crash, including details on the search efforts. She said everyone on the plane was from the Alma area.

No other details were immediately available.

It wasn't the first time a medical flight has crashed in Lake Michigan. A Survival Flight plane carrying donor organs for a double lung transplant operation crashed in June 2007 into the lake near Milwaukee on its way to the University of Michigan Health System hospital in Ann Arbor. All six people on board the Cessna 550 Citation were killed.

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Associated Press writers Corey Williams and Jeff Karoub in Detroit contributed to this report.

Local riders do well under park floodlights on difficult course

ONE hundred and seventy-four riders ranging from under-8s to over-60s descended on Carmarthen Park on October 22 for round 5 of theWelsh Cyclocross League, and local riders shone in this uniqueevent, which was held under floodlights for the first time in Wales.Racing started at 4.30pm with the under-8s and 10s and was roundedoff by the senior/vets/juniors a couple of hours later.

Bynea Cycling Club's Joe Holt stormed clear from the start of theyouth event and maintained his lead throughout on the challenging,technical six laps of the Park course, soloing to victory over theother 34 riders.

Holt made it his fourth win out of the five rounds so far and isriding strongly.

In the main event, not to be outdone by his younger counterparts,Towy Riders' William Worrall soloed to victory in the ten-lap race,beating many of the senior riders in doing so.

Bynea CC's senior riders Andrew Parry and Chris Bates wereseventh and 11th respectively, a turnaround in their fortunes fromthe last round held in Brecon.

Other local winners on the night were, Heledd Hunt (U8 girls),Joshua Tarling (U8 boys), Emma Finucane (U10 girls), Guto Dafydd(U10 boys) and Jessica Roberts (U14 girls), all from the Towy Ridersclub.

Round 6 was held last Sunday at Parc Cwm Darran, in the RhymneyValley, with the next local round at Pembrey Country Park on Sunday,November 13, at 10.30am.

Monday, March 12, 2012

'Sexy' library assistant loses her lawsuit against Harvard

BOSTON - Harvard University did not discriminate against a libraryassistant who claimed she was repeatedly turned down for promotionsbecause school officials saw her as "a pretty girl" whose attire wastoo "sexy," a federal jury has found.

Desiree Goodwin, who is black, also claimed that Harvard passedher over because of her race and gender. She had been seeking damagesfor emotional distress and lost wages.

"One of my friends said to me, no matter how it turns out,standing up for yourself is a victory in itself," Goodwin said Mondayafter the verdict.

Harvard spokesman Joe Wrinn said the university was pleased withthe ruling.

"Employment at Harvard is based on the specific work skills andwork history applicants bring to specific jobs," he said. "We havealways believed that to be the case and today the jury has agreed."

Goodwin, who has worked as a library assistant at Harvard since1994, claimed in the lawsuit that she had been rejected for sevenpromotions at the library since 1999.

She said she was shocked when, in late 2001, her supervisor toldher she would never be promoted at Harvard.

In court documents, Goodwin said her supervisor told her she was"a joke" at the university's main library, where she "was seen merelyas a pretty girl who wore sexy outfits, low cut blouses, and tightpants."

Gates: 'No grand bargain' with Tehran

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Tuesday there is "no grand bargain" with Iran as the United States tries to bolster relations with the Tehran government.

Asked by reporters what kind of progress the U.S. is hoping for with Iran, Gates said he didn't know what was possible.

The U.S. is still waiting to see how the Iranians respond to President Barack Obama's outreach, Gates said, but so far the rhetoric from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been "not very encouraging."

"We're not willing to pull the hand back yet because we think there's still some opportunity," the Pentagon chief said. "But I think concerns out there of some kind of a grand bargain developed in secret are completely unrealistic."

He added, "The United States will be very open and transparent about these contacts, and we will keep our friends informed of what is going so nobody gets surprised."

Gates met Tuesday morning with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Defense Minister Hussein Tantawi before flying to Riyadh for meetings with Saudi Arabia's leaders.

He said he's going to be relying on Saudi Arabia to help with the situation in Pakistan, where violence has been building as the militant Taliban advances toward the capital.

Gates said the Saudis "clearly have a lot of influence in the entire region."

Asked about Obama's scheduled meetings with the leaders of Pakistan and Afghanistan in Washington this week, Gates said, "There will be a common agreement on the nature of the threat and the importance of Afghanistan and Pakistan working closely together with the United States and our partners to try and deal with that threat."

Study: Iraqi Security Forces Unready

WASHINGTON - Iraq's security forces have made "uneven progress" and will be unlikely to take over security on their own in the next 12 to 18 months, according to an independent assessment.

The study, led by retired Gen. James Jones, is one of several independent studies Congress required in May. A copy of the 37-page report and its executive summary was obtained by The Associated Press.

Overall, Jones found that Iraqi military forces, particularly the Army, show "clear evidence of developing the baseline infrastructures that lead to the successful formation of a national defense capability." But Baghdad's police force and Ministry of Interior are plagued by "dysfunction."

"In any event, the ISF will be unable to fulfill their essential security responsibilities independently over the next 12-18 months," the report states.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

WASHINGTON (AP) - Democrats are considering ways to force a drawdown of troops if President Bush decides to keep forces in Iraq through spring as expected, including a possible short-term spending bill that would pay only to bring troops home.

The approach would guarantee another showdown with Bush on the war before year's end, putting Republicans squarely in the middle of the debate. With Democrats lacking the two-thirds majority needed to override a presidential veto, they need GOP votes to tip the scales and force legislation ending the war.

According to administration officials, Bush's advisers are recommending he stand by his war strategy until the spring, and Bush is considered unlikely to order more than a symbolic cut in troops before the end of the year. Officials familiar with the assessment spoke on condition of anonymity to describe decisions not yet publicly released.

At the forefront of Democrats' minds is the more than $147 billion that Bush has said he needs to continue funding the war through budget year 2008, which begins Oct. 1.

"That's where we're going to fight the real fight on the war," said Rep. James Moran, D-Va., a member of the House panel that oversees the military budget.

Moran said an option being considered is a bill that funds the troops, but in three- or four-month installments, and directs the money pay for the logistics in bringing home the 160,000 troops in Iraq, instead of combat.

The approach is similar to those tried earlier this year by Democrats. But lacking enough GOP votes, such bills have failed to become law. Democrats say they hope the lack of political progress being made by Baghdad politicians will frustrate Republicans into jumping ship, no matter how much military progress is made.

But GOP leaders say they aren't so sure they'll lose that many votes.

"The success our troops have had put some oxygen back in the room, both for the party and the American public," said Rep. Adam Putnam, R-Fla., the No. 3 House Republican.

Speaking to reporters Wednesday during a trip to Australia, Bush restated his view that decisions about troop levels should be based on recommendations from military commanders. He noted that Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, and Ambassador Ryan Crocker would be delivering progress reports soon enough.

Petraeus and Crocker are scheduled to testify before House committees on Sept. 10 and Senate panels on Sept. 11.

"Whether or not that's part of the policy I announce to the nation ... why don't we see what they say and then I'll let you know," Bush said.

Republican support likely will hinge on Petraeus' testimony next week. If he can convince lawmakers that the security gains won in recent months are substantial and point toward a bigger trend - and a promise of major troop reductions next year - GOP members might be willing to hold out until spring.

They also might be persuaded to wait until April if Bush agrees to a small, symbolic drawdown of troops by the end of the year, as is suggested to the White House by Coleman and Sen. John Warner, an influential Republican on security matters.

But that would be the best case scenario for Bush in a Congress already gearing up for the 2008 election season. For their part, Democrats will use the unpopularity of the war against Republican candidates, including in the presidential election. Support for cutting off money for the war also is likely to grow, if Bush insists on keeping troops in Iraq at heightened levels through spring.

Democratic presidential hopeful John Edwards said Wednesday that Congress shouldn't give Bush any more money for the war without a deadline for troops to come home.

"No timeline, no funding. No excuses," according to a campaign statement.

Bush's upcoming assessment on the war comes as a congressional watchdog agency concluded that Iraq has made little political progress and mixed success with its security goals.

A senior Democrat, Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Mo., opened a hearing Wednesday by the House Armed Services Committee saying: "We are left asking ourselves why we should expect this record to be different in the future and whether American efforts will be of any effect."

Skelton, the chairman, said, "it's not clear to me why we should continue to move ahead with this strategy at the cost of American lives and dollars if the Iraqis are not stepping forward."

On the other hand, a senior Republican said he was very concerned, "we are turning a blind eye" to progress. Rep. Jim Saxton, R-N.J., countering Skelton and other Democrats, said: "Let's be honest the military surge, which reached full strength in mid-June, is working."

U.S. Comptroller General David Walker, who oversaw the study, told the committee the Congress and White House should decide upon a clear mission of U.S. forces.

"It's time to reassess what are our goals, what are our objectives and who should be doing what," Walker said.

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Associated Press writer Barry Schweid contributed to this report.